La Liga (21.781) sits in second going into the second legs of the Europa League and Conference League semi-finals on Thursday.
The Bundesliga (21.357) is just 0.424 points behind. In real terms, that is a win and a draw.
Going into Thursday’s games, each league has one team left – Freiburg for Germany and Rayo Vallecano for Spain.
Freiburg must overcome a 2-1 deficit at home to Braga, while Rayo Vallecano take a 1-0 lead to Strasbourg.
This is how Kane’s goal could help to decide it.
If Freiburg beat Braga and go through to the final, they will add 0.428 to Germany’s score.
And if Rayo Vallecano lose in France, La Liga score nothing and it would be unable to finish above the Bundesliga.
In this scenario, Germany would confirm second place by just 0.00446 of a coefficient point.
Without Kane’s goal, Germany would be 0.13889 behind Spain.
There are a few other scenarios for the EPS on Thursday.
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If Rayo Vallecano win, Spain are assured of the extra place regardless of Freiburg’s result
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If both teams go out, Spain get the additional place
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If both go through with Rayo Vallecano drawing, it goes down to the finals
In Germany, there is a three-team battle for fourth place between Bayer Leverkusen, Stuttgart and Hoffenheim. All three are on 58 points with two games to go. Without the EPS, only one will get into the Champions League.
La Liga has a clearer picture, with Real Betis on their own in fifth, six points clear of Celta Vigo with four games to play.
