On paper, Verstappen is a Red Bull driver next year and beyond. A Red Bull spokesperson said: “Max has a contract to 2028.”
At the same time, Verstappen and his management have talked with Mercedes about the possibility of moving there next year. And it’s likely Verstappen could find a way out of his Red Bull contract if he really wanted to.
Red Bull motorsport adviser Helmut Marko said in April that he had “great concern” about Verstappen’s future in the team given their performance at the time. And in March he told BBC Sport: “We know that if we don’t deliver for Max, all the top drivers have performance clauses in their contract.”
For Verstappen, there are obvious reasons why a move away from Red Bull to Mercedes might seem attractive.
He has won four consecutive drivers’ titles with his current team, but in the past 18 months Red Bull have slipped from their competitive pedestal.
Verstappen built up such a large lead in the first half of last season that he was able to hold off a late challenge from McLaren and Lando Norris with relative comfort.
But McLaren started this season off strongly, and Red Bull have not been able to mount a consistent challenge.
Verstappen has taken two wins, but they have come on similar types of circuit – those with predominantly quick corners. On balance, the McLaren is the faster car.
This has come in the context of Red Bull losing their design legend Adrian Newey to Aston Martin, and long-time sporting director Jonathan Wheatley to Sauber.
Former Red Bull driver Sergio Perez, sacked at the end of last season but able to negotiate a deal that forced the team to pay him for the two years of his contract they are not fulfilling, said in a podcast this week that Red Bull’s decline dated directly from Newey’s departure.
It would be no surprise if, in those circumstances, Verstappen’s confidence in Red Bull’s ability to design a fully competitive car had taken a knock.
Then there are the new rules coming into force in F1 next year, which represent a major change to both cars and engines. The engine change is especially large. It increases the proportion of total performance of the engine provided by the electrical components to 50%.
Red Bull have set up a new company to develop and build its own engine. That was always going to be a tough task, and at the moment the widespread belief within F1 is that Mercedes are leading the way on performance with the new engines, and that Red Bull are struggling.
Verstappen, then, is looking at a situation where he has serious question marks about Red Bull’s future prospects, and every reason to believe Mercedes might be able to provide him with a more competitive car next season.
