Pep Guardiola strode into the Bernabeu Stadium’s palatial surroundings knowing Manchester City must overturn the odds – and logic – in a special place that usually reserves its miracles for Real Madrid.
He has known every emotion in this legendary arena on a Champions League journey that has brought him here with Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Manchester City.
And on Wednesday, Guardiola will once more appear alongside his friend and great adversary, Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti, beneath those towering stands knowing victory will rank among his finest achievements.
Guardiola rates City’s chances of overturning a 3-2 deficit from the first leg of this play-off to reach the last 16 as “1%”.
And, to gauge the opinions of locals in a city that has held more Champions League victory parades than any other, they feel Guardiola is erring on the side of optimism.
Guardiola was in measured mood when he appeared in front of the media at the Bernabeu, an environment that represented enemy territory during his time as player and coach with Barcelona – and his message was crystal clear.
“We have to make it almost the perfect game,” he said. “We have to attack. We have to score goals. This is the idea.”
Guardiola is determined City will not leave the Bernabeu wondering or with regrets, saying: “We must play with courage. We must be ourselves. It will need incredible courage and we must play to win.
“We could still lose, but we have to show that courage and be ourselves. We have to play so well, especially after the result we took away in the first leg.”
Opta statistics rate City’s chances of advancing at a more optimistic 19.8%, but those percentages must be viewed through the prism of Real’s history in this tournament and the muscle memory that kicks in for the 15-time winners when it matters.
Guardiola’s record with City against Real is chequered, though it started with victory in the last 16 in 2020, the two legs being played six months apart because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The most bitter moment came two years later when City led by two goals on aggregate in the 90th minute of the semi-final second leg at the Bernabeu, only for Rodrygo to score twice within seconds, Karim Benzema’s injury-time penalty sending Real on to eventual victory over Liverpool in the final in Paris.
When Guardiola, as Manchester City manager, claimed his third Champions League crown in 2023, after winning with Barcelona in 2009 and 2011, Real were thrashed 5-1 on aggregate in the semi-final, the Spanish champions then prevailing on penalties last season.
He said: “I have some incredible memories here – sometimes good ones, sometimes not so good.
“We know at this stage, and in this stadium, the pressure is there – but you get that in Milan, in Barcelona, at Anfield. You have to suffer at these places, but you have to reduce those moments.”
Real’s remarkable win against City in 2022 is the sort of sporting lightning strike Guardiola will seek to turn back on them, but he must do it with a fading team that has lost its domestic supremacy after winning a historic four successive Premier Leagues, and now faces the prospect of going out of the Champions League before the last 16 for the first time in 12 years.
