Yemen’s future hangs in the balance after a dramatic turn of events in the south which have brought Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates into unprecedented direct confrontation and threaten the country with partition.

Both Gulf powers have intervened on behalf of Yemen’s internationally recognised government in the country’s long-running civil war, but a fracturing of the alliance has seen them backing different rival groups on the ground, one of whom is now pushing to declare the independence of a breakaway state in southern Yemen.

On Friday, the UAE-backed force declared that a “war” had begun, accusing Saudi-backed ground forces of launching an attack alongside air strikes by the Saudi air force.

Yemen’s civil war broke out in 2014 and has plunged the already impoverished country into years of deadly violence and one of the world’s worst hunger crises.

At the start of the war, the Iran-backed rebel Houthi movement took control of most of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, from the government. The conflict escalated in 2015, when a coalition of Arab states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched a military campaign to restore the government’s rule.

A ceasefire has de-escalated the conflict with the Houthis in recent years and led to a freezing of the front lines.

But the Saudi-backed ruling coalition – the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), formed in 2022 and designed to unite various anti-Houthi factions – has frayed.

At the same time, the vast majority of southern Yemen has been taken by UAE-backed separatists, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is formally part of the coalition.

The infighting escalated on 2 December, when the STC – which seeks an independent state in the south – launched a large-scale military offensive in the east of the country and rapidly took control of territory from government forces. The STC’s advances included the oil-rich Hadramawt province that borders Saudi Arabia.

The STC said the offensive was necessary to “restore stability” in the south. But it was denounced as a “rebellion” by the head of the PLC, Rashad al-Alimi, who said the STC’s separatist push threatened to fracture Yemen and plunge the region into chaos.

Tensions have further escalated with air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition. On Friday, seven people were killed in an air strike on an STC military camp in Hadramawt, an STC official said.

That followed air strikes on Tuesday on the southern port of Mukalla, where the coalition accused the UAE of delivering two ships loaded with military equipment to the separatists over the weekend. No casualties were reported but images of burnt-out vehicles shared on social media after the strikes suggested the strikes directly targeted the UAE hardware.

The UAE foreign ministry denied the allegations, saying the shipment did not contain weapons and that the vehicles were to be used by Emirati forces in the country.

Following Tuesday’s strikes, the head of Yemen’s Presidential Council said it had cancelled a joint defence treaty with the UAE and ordered all its forces to leave the country within 24 hours.

The Saudi foreign ministry backed the call for the Emirati forces to leave, accusing the UAE of pressuring the STC to launch the offensive in the east, which has reached Saudi Arabia’s borders. The ministry warned that Saudi Arabia’s national security was a “red line”.

The UAE denied it was behind the STC’s recent military campaign but, in a move that was unexpected to many, hours later it conceded to the demand and agreed to withdraw its forces from Yemen.

The UAE’s motivations in supporting the STC in Yemen are seen as helping it secure access to key sea ports and challenging an Islamist party that sits in the government.

But even if the UAE fully removes its physical presence in Yemen, it “won’t change anything” and does not signify a backdown of the STC forces it supports, says Farea al-Muslimi, a researcher at Chatham House.

“The UAE hasn’t had a significant troop presence in Yemen since 2019. It has relied on special forces and mostly its network of proxies working directly on the ground,” says Mr Muslimi.

In the newly contested areas like Hadramawt, the prospect of a wider conflagration of fighting is alarming families.

“Some people are thinking of going to villages or staying with relatives if things get worse. But most people don’t really have the option to leave the city,” says Mohamed from Mukalla.

“Most people are going out less [and] have stored some goods like flour and rice. Everyone is following the news closely, moment by moment.”

Years of devastating conflict have ravaged Yemen’s economy. The country’s roughly 40 million people have endured what aid agencies say is the world’s third worst hunger crisis – one that has repeatedly threatened to reach famine levels. In 2021, the UN estimated that 377,000 people had died as a result of the conflict and its impact on hunger and healthcare, of which 259,000 were said to be children under the age of five.

While the current conflict is being framed from the outside as an emerging proxy war between two Gulf powers, close watchers of Yemeni politics have seen the recent escalations by the STC as a long time coming.

The STC’s ambitions have risen after its recent expansion of control over nearly all of the south of the country, Yemeni affairs journalist Anwar al-Ansi told BBC Arabic.

“[STC chief Aidarous] Al-Zubaidi has been the most consistent person inside Yemen, consistently demanding independence for southern Yemen. So, no, I don’t think he will give up,” says Mr Muslimi.

Speaking to the BBC, Anwar al-Tamimi, a spokesperson for the STC confirmed their aspirations.

“Our intentions have always been clear for years and that is to establish an independent state, we haven’t tried to fool anyone,” he said.

“It’s the right of the people of the south to choose their fate, unfortunately many in the region have tried to stand in our way.”

He denied independence would be a threat to Saudi Arabia’s national security.

“We will have stability and won’t be a source of terrorism that threatens them,” he said.

Whether these assurances will be enough to prevent Saudi-backed forces attempting to reclaim their grip on southern Yemen is unclear.

“The UAE and Saudi Arabia cannot and will not be able to agree in Yemen. They have a very different logic on the ground,” says Mr Muslimi. “Saudi has 1,500km of border with Yemen while the UAE has zero.

“Imagine having the UK and France going directly into a war with each other – that is the same way I think about the UAE and Saudi Arabia. They are rich and powerful countries with lots of weapons and it’s very bad for the whole region.”