Brazil thought it had gotten off lightly on the Trump tariff front.

In April, US President Donald Trump announced that Brazilian goods imported to the US would face tariffs of 10% – the lowest base rate applied to most countries.

Now, as the 90-day pause on those and other targeted US tariffs is set to expire, Trump has raised Brazil’s rate to a whopping 50% – potentially launching a trade war with Latin America’s biggest economy, which sells large amounts of beef, coffee, steel and other products to the United States.

The announcement on Wednesday means Brazil will face one of the highest US tariff rates in the world, at least so far. But this new policy isn’t even really about trade.

Earlier this month, Trump claimed the US runs a trade deficit with Brazil. In fact, it runs a multimillion-dollar surplus, meaning the United States sells more to Brazil than it buys.

This new tariff rate isn’t about levelling a trade playing field. It’s political, and part of a growing feud between the US and Brazil.

President Trump has framed these tariffs as retaliation over the prosecution of his ally, right-wing former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro is facing trial over an alleged coup attempt after losing the 2022 presidential election, when his supporters stormed government buildings in Brasilia. The case includes claims of a plot to kill President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who won the race.

Bolsonaro denies the charges and Trump has slammed them as a “witch-hunt”.

Much of the US administration’s ire has been directed at Alexandre de Moraes, the Brazilian Supreme Court judge in charge of investigating Bolsonaro.

In announcing the tariff hike, the White House also accused Brazil of “actions harming US companies”, targeting the “free speech rights of US persons” and what it described as Brazil’s “politically motivated persecution, intimidation, harassment, censorship and prosecution” of Bolsonaro.

The “actions” and “free speech rights” mentioned in the White House statement are probably references to Moraes’s previous court orders for some social media companies to shut down accounts associated with the former president, which Moraes accused of spreading harmful disinformation.

Moraes is renowned in Brazil for his actions targeting misinformation.

Last year, he temporarily shut down Elon Musk’s X in Brazil– one of the platform’s largest markets – for failing to appoint a legal representative in the country after he ordered the suspension of dozens of accounts for spreading disinformation, which Musk called “censorship”.

In Brazil, some hail Moraes as a champion of democracy. Others share Bolsonaro’s view that he is “authoritarian”, or even a “dictator”, in Musk’s words.

Earlier this year, Trump’s own media group, which operates his Truth Social platform, sued the Supreme Court judge over censorship accusations.

Shortly before the tariff announcement, the US also imposed sanctions on Moraes and issued him and his family with a visa ban.

Some analysts argue this row over policing social media companies is itself a trade issue.

Fabio Andrade, a political scientist and professor of international relations at The Higher School of Advertising and Marketing in Brazil, argued the motivations for tariffs are “not solely” political.

He said big tech companies are important in the US economy and were “crucial in financing Trump’s campaign” and could now face significant cost increases from increased regulation in Brazil.

But these new US tariff and sanction policies are also partly the result of a long campaign by the former president’s son Eduardo Bolsonaro, who has spent the last few months lobbying US officials on his father’s behalf.

Moraes has ordered that Eduardo, a federal lawmaker, be investigated for alleged obstruction of justice, and has instructed Jair Bolsonaro to wear an electronic ankle tag ahead of his trial, to comply with a curfew, to stay off social media and to avoid contacting his son.

To support his friend, Trump has slapped Brasilia with these tariffs, sanctions and visa bans – all designed to exert pressure on Brazilian authorities to back down on criminal proceedings against Bolsonaro.

So far, they don’t seem to be working – and could harm both nations in the meantime.

Left-wing President Lula has repeatedly rejected the moves and dismissed them as foreign interference, defending the Supreme Court’s moves as judicial independence and urged the US to negotiate.

“The interference of the American government in Brazilian justice is unacceptable,” Lula said on Wednesday in response, adding that while the country remained open to negotiating with the US on trade, it was preparing measures to “protect Brazilian workers, companies, and families”.

Relations remain icy – Lula and Trump have never even exchanged a phone call.

On the upside for Lula, he has enjoyed an opinion poll bounce domestically as he responds to Trump’s tariff threats, similarly to Canada’s Mark Carney.

He has even taken to wearing a blue cap, not dissimilar to Trump’s red “Make America Great Again” one, which says “O Brasil é dos brasileiros” or “Brazil belongs to Brazilians”.

In fact, some analysts in Brazil say these tariffs, imposed on Bolsonaro’s behalf, could backfire on the former president, who is currently barred from running again in next year’s presidential election.

Not least because some producers – including those more likely to support Bolsonaro – will be severely impacted by the new rate.

Brazil has an enormous agriculture business and sells a lot of beef, oil and steel products to the US.

The US gets about a third of its coffee and more than half its orange juice from Brazil, including through major brands like Tropicana and Starbucks.

Some items – including many oils, orange juice and some aircraft parts – have been excluded from the tariffs for now.

But the new 50% tariff rate – set to take effect in October – will likely make other goods more expensive for Americans as companies pass on higher costs to consumers, and that Brazilian producers will have to absorb some of the higher prices themselves.

Brazil may seek new buyers globally, but exporters say that won’t offset the short-term impact.

Cecafé, Brazil’s coffee exporters’ council, said the impact on Brazilian roasters and exporters will be “significant”, and to expect price hikes for Americans, too, as the US is Brazil’s largest coffee customer.

Brazilian producers and exporters are making contingency plans in anticipation of the 50% tariffs. But those I’ve spoken to stress that replacing US trade will not be possible in the short term.

Cecafé told me it wouldn’t be easy to find other markets for the 8.1 million tonnes of coffee currently exported to the US, which would require an increase in demand from other countries.

New markets are opening to Brazil in Asia, which imported 19.4% more Brazilian coffee last year, as Arab countries also imported 31.5% more, according to Cecafé, but these increases are not enough to absorb any potential US shortfall.

What’s not clear yet is Brazil’s next move: Will Brasilia and Washington negotiate a new deal, as other nations have? Or will Brazil retaliate, turning this spat into a mutual trade war?

Lula says he won’t be intimidated. Trump shows no sign of backing down. Both are big personalities, with supporter bases from opposite ends of the political spectrum to impress.

What (else) could go wrong?