Thailand’s parliament has chosen business tycoon Anutin Charnvirakul as the country’s prime minister – the third in two years, after yet another leader was removed from office.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who belongs to Thailand’s most powerful political dynasty, was removed by the constitutional court last week for ethical violations over her handling of the border dispute with Cambodia.

Anutin’s Bhumjaithai party broke from the coalition led by the Shinawatras’ Pheu Thai, and secured enough support in parliament to win the premiership.

But the uncertainty may not be over for Thailand which has seen multiple administrations deposed by court interventions and military coups in the recent past.

Anutin’s rise to the premiership deals a significant blow to the Shinawatra family, which has dominated Thai politics since 2001, when Paetongtarn’s father Thaksin became PM.

On Thursday night there was intense scrutiny in Thailand of a private jet carrying Thaksin out of the country.

Early on Friday he posted on social media saying that he had flown to Dubai for medical treatment and that he intends to return in time for a 9 September hearing for a court case that could put him back in jail.

His Pheu Thai party, which emerged as a major player in the 2023 election, is now on the sidelines. It had one last remaining candidate for PM, Chaikasem Nitisiri, who has little public profile and is in poor health.

In the past the Shinawatras’ populist policies gave them wide support among lower-income Thais, but put them at odds with Bangkok’s conservative-royalist elite.

Both Thaksin, and his sister Yingluck, who served as prime minister after him, were ousted by military coups in 2006 and 2014 respectively.

When Paetongtarn became the PM, it was seen as a comeback for the family – but her dismissal suggests they have again lost favour with the conservative-royalist elite.

Paetongtarn was the fifth Thai prime minister to be removed from office by the Constitutional Court, all of them from administrations backed by her father Thaksin.

She herself took office after her predecessor was dismissed by the same court, also for an ethics violation.

And the Pheu Thai-led coalition formed the government only after the reformist party that won the election was prevented from doing so – before it was then dissolved by the Constitutional Court, and some of its leaders banned from politics for the next 10 years.

Its successor, the People’s Party, is among those currently supporting Anutin. It has the most number of seats in parliament but it is still barred from forming a government.

Anutin, 58, is a seasoned politician and dealmaker who in the past has made no secret of wanting the top job. But even he must wish he’d got it under better circumstances.

His party Bhumjaithai (Proud to be Thai) has only 69 seats out of 500 in parliament, which means he can only govern with the backing of one of the two largest parties.

Bhumjaithai is famously unideological and transactional, and in the past has been allied with conservative, military-backed groups and, more recently, with Pheu Thai.

He left the Pheu Thai-led coalition ostensibly over an embarrassing leaked phone call between Paetongtarn and Cambodian strongman Hun Sen, but there were other disagreements.

The only remaining option was the progressive and youthful People’s Party, the largest in parliament. But the two parties make unlikely bedfellows.

Anutin is staunchly royalist. The People’s Party is not, one reason its leaders were banned from politics leaving it with no eligible candidate for PM. Some of its MPs have been convicted of lese majeste, and many opposed doing any deal with Bhumjaithai.

But with Pheu Thai in disarray following Paetongtarn’s dismissal, there was also a possibility that former PM and coup leader Prayuth Chan-ocha might have been called back to lead the country, a prospect even less palatable than teaming up with Anutin.

However, the People’s Party has made tough demands for supporting Anutin’s premiership.

It has got Anutin to agree to call an election within four months, and to start the process of amending the military-drafted constitution. It is offering to support only the new government’s survival until the election, not any legislation.

So Anutin starts his premiership with his hands tied, and only four months to make an impact.

Anutin comes from a wealthy political family. His father held several ministerial portfolios, and founded the family construction business – it built the new parliament complex in which the vote for prime minister took place.

Anutin is best known for liberalising Thailand’s marijuana laws when he was health minister in 2022. He is an enthusiastic pilot who owns three of his own planes.

His challenge now is to pilot his country out of yet another political crisis, in a very short timeframe.