Another imponderable in the event of, say, a two-year ineligibility is recourse to the highest court of appeal, the Cour de Cassation.
If on Tuesday she is found guilty but authorised to run for president, then it would not be in her interest to appeal to the Cour de Cassation because its decision – which would come in January – might go against her and reimpose ineligibility.
However, it is not only a defendant who can turn to the Cour de Cassation. The prosecution can too. In which case, we might have Le Pen able to run for the next few months (because the original ineligibility would be suspended) only to be re-declared ineligible early next year.
All these uncertainties have led some to speculate whether in her heart Le Pen has already resigned herself to not running and to handing over the campaign to Bardella.
Speaking in a French television interview ahead of the verdict, she appeared almost content at the prospect: “Whatever happens, I’ll still be alive. Whatever happens, I will continue the fight for my ideas.”
But there is another school of thought tipping to the theory that – despite all the excitement over Bardella – it will in the end be Le Pen facing the electorate next April-May.
According to this interpretation, apparently much-heard in government circles, the judges are not impervious to the political importance of their decision and would therefore be reluctant to deprive the electorate of so popular a candidate as Le Pen.
In truth, no-one knows how the verdict will fall. All that can be said for certain is that much hinges on it. A Le Pen candidacy for the French presidency is not the same as a Bardella candidacy.
For one thing, the two represent different sensibilities within the nationalist camp.
Le Pen has always declared herself to be “neither left nor right” and her appeal is strongest among the old working class. Bardella leans more to the economic liberalism of the traditional right – as shown by his recent contact with top business executives.
Party insiders say the two are “complementary”, each appealing to different sectors of the population and the combination potentially allowing the RN to break through its glass ceiling and finally win power.
But however much they minimise the differences – and however much they profess their mutual loyalty – the passing of power from the seasoned, familiar, loyalty-inspiring warrior that is Marine Le Pen to the untested squire that is Jordan Bardella would be a step into the unknown.
