In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points again in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.
Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.
We’re now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history. The dream fades the closer we get to kick-off.
We’ve been in this movie before. The case for Scottish belief centred around these All Blacks not being vintage, which they’re not. They have greatness in their ranks but it’s not across the board.
They’re missing two Barretts – Scott and Jordie. They have lost to Argentina and have been pummelled by South Africa. Even in victory over Ireland in Chicago last weekend they weren’t all that scary. In moments, yes, but they didn’t have many.
An opening for Scotland? Yes and no. Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn’t made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.
Fagerson hasn’t played since April, but he’s a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.
In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson’s engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations – 68, 67, 76, 61 and 80 in Paris on the final day. Quality minutes, too.
Why bang on about a player who’s not playing? Because to pull off what would be Scotland’s biggest single Test win since the 1990 Grand Slam game with England – and to go into the top three of all-time along with the 1984 Grand Slam win against France – Scotland need every one of its big beasts.
They’re without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There’s no such quality replacing big Zander. D’Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead but his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.
And when Rae is finished trying to take the fight to the enormous Ethan de Groot, there’s Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop but there’s little to suggest that he’s All Black-beating class.
The red flags for Scotland are at tighthead. Rae will know this and the hope is that that concern for him among supporters will inspire him to deliver a career-defining performance. Belligerence is required.
There’s world class in the Scottish backline but without stability up front it will die at source. For all the buzz about what Finn Russell, Sione Tuipulotu, Darcy Graham, Blair Kinghorn and their dangerous support cast can produce, many eyes will be on how Rae is coping. He’s not box office but he’s monumentally important.
Townsend has sprung surprises in his selection, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn’s game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe’s more one-dimensional power.
The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There’s no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23, which is odd. Marshall Sykes, a giant, is in the 23 ahead of Max Williamson, which is where the curiosity comes in. Williamson looks to have more about him. Townsend disagrees in this instance. On such decisions are Tests won and lost.
