{"id":5543,"date":"2024-07-29T07:20:10","date_gmt":"2024-07-29T07:20:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.godj.com\/news\/nigel-farages-claims-on-migration-voter-fraud-and-climate-change-fact-checked\/"},"modified":"2024-07-29T07:20:10","modified_gmt":"2024-07-29T07:20:10","slug":"nigel-farages-claims-on-migration-voter-fraud-and-climate-change-fact-checked","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.godj.com\/news\/nigel-farages-claims-on-migration-voter-fraud-and-climate-change-fact-checked\/","title":{"rendered":"Nigel Farage’s claims on migration, voter fraud and climate change fact-checked"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage was interviewed on BBC Breakfast on Friday and also took questions from the public on BBC Radio 5 Live. He made a number of striking statistical claims on a host of subjects.<\/b><\/p>\n
Here we examine some of them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
‘We have to provide a new home every two minutes in this country just to deal with net migration’ <\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
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He did not specify what statistical source this was based on and this claim needs context. <\/p>\n
Annual net migration – the difference between people coming to the UK and leaving – in the year to December 2023 was 685,000.<\/p>\n
Assuming the population increase due to net migration occurred evenly through the year, this would amount to 2.6 people every two minutes.<\/p>\n
The average UK household occupancy in 2023 was about 2.4 people, according to the Office for National Statistics.<\/p>\n
So if every new member of the UK population due to net migration last year ended up in a household of 2.4 people and that household required a new home to live in, you could get to a statistic similar to that cited by Mr Farage.<\/p>\n
However, this kind of calculation does not take into account some existing homes being vacant, or how many people, on average, live in a household formed by new migrants.<\/p>\n
Moreover, analysts say the interaction of immigration and housing demand is complex – and the main impact is likely to be through house prices and rents.<\/p>\n
The government\u2019s Migration Advisory Committee, its official advisory body, found evidence in 2018 that a 1% population increase due to migration leads to a 1% rise in house prices.<\/p>\n
But the Migration Observatory concluded more recently that \u201cit is challenging to establish a causal relationship between the price of housing and the level of immigration with any precision\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
‘Half of those that\u2019ve come aren\u2019t coming to work, they\u2019re coming as dependants’ <\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
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This claim is not correct if you look at the latest figures for overall migrant visas. <\/p>\n
Mr Farage did not specify which time period he was talking about but in the year ending March 2024, about a third of all visas issued went to dependants.<\/p>\n
His claim is broadly correct though on the numbers coming on work visas.<\/p>\n
Out of all the work visas issued in the year ending March 2024, 48% were issued to dependants.<\/p>\n
However, it is worth noting that dependants of a person on a skilled worker visa or a student visa are not entitled to claim benefits in the UK.<\/p>\n
And they are allowed to work – although we don\u2019t know what proportion do so.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
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‘Any country that has a large postal ballot will always be open to fraud and intimidation and it happens in this country [UK] all the time’ <\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
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The UK actually has \u201clow levels of proven electoral fraud\u201d, according to the Electoral Commission, an independent body tasked by Parliament with overseeing UK elections. <\/p>\n
Its data shows that of the 1,462 cases of alleged electoral fraud reported to police between 2019 and 2023, 11 led to convictions and the police issued four cautions.<\/p>\n
Of the five convictions for electoral fraud in elections held in 2019, one of them involved postal ballots.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
‘All I do know is that man produces about 3% of the CO2 produced in the world every year\u2026 and that it is nuts to call CO2 a poison’ <\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
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This claim is misleading. <\/p>\n
Scientists at Nasa told Reuters in March that human activity has been responsible for around 33% of the total carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. <\/p>\n
The natural world recycles hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2 every year. But what really matters for the climate is how CO2 levels change over time.<\/p>\n
Without human influence, the amount of CO2 produced would roughly equal the amount absorbed – meaning the level of CO2 in the atmosphere would stay roughly the same. <\/p>\n
But since 1750, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by 50%. It is at its highest level for two million years.<\/p>\n
The UN\u2019s climate body – the IPCC – produces comprehensive reports on the state of knowledge about global warming, drawing on the work of the world’s scientists.<\/p>\n
The IPCC concluded in its 2023 report that \u201chuman activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
‘You can now go shoplifting and provided you nick less than \u00a3200 worth of stuff you won’t get prosecuted’<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
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It is difficult to come to a verdict on this claim because there is no breakdown of shoplifting prosecutions, by value of goods stolen. <\/p>\n
Under the Anti-Social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act 2014, there are different rules for prosecuting \u201clow-value shoplifting\u201d, defined as theft from a shop of goods valued at under \u00a3200.<\/p>\n
The maximum sentence for this is six months in prison, but the offence can be dealt with by issuing a fine (which would count as a prosecution). <\/p>\n
There has been a large increase in shoplifting in recent years.<\/p>\n
According to the Office for National Statistics, in the year ending December 2023 the number of recorded shoplifting offences increased by over a third in England and Wales compared with the previous year.<\/p>\n
There were 430,000 offences in 2023 compared with 315,000 in 2022.<\/p>\n
In 2023, more than 31,000 people were prosecuted in England and Wales for theft from shops but these figures do not specify the value of goods stolen. <\/p>\n
Additional reporting by Tom Edgington, Mark Poynting, Anthony Reuben and Lucy Gilder.<\/i><\/p>\n
This piece was updated to reflect that the Migration Observatory updated – on 15 June – its quote on the relationship between immigration and house prices. <\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
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