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Tariffs of 20% on Northern Ireland goods entering the US could cost local businesses at least \u00a3100m in lost sales, an economist has estimated.<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump is expected to announce a new round of tariffs on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
The UK government has been trying to negotiate an exemption but now expects that tariffs will be imposed on UK goods<\/a>.<\/p>\n Northern Ireland sold goods worth about \u00a31.3bn to the US in 2023, with a concentration in pharmaceuticals and industrial machinery.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Tariffs are effectively taxes applied to goods imported from other countries.<\/p>\n Governments impose tariffs in the hope of protecting local manufacturers from international competition.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Ulster University economist Esmond Birnie has calculated a “direct and narrow” impact of \u00a3100m in reduced sales from a 20% tariff.<\/p>\n He said second and third round effects, such as an overall reduction in global trade, could push the overall negative impact up to \u00a3200m – \u00a3300m.<\/p>\n He added that even a drop of \u00a3100m could still have a significant impact on overall economic performance.<\/p>\n “It is only about 0.2% of Northern Ireland’s overall GDP, which is about \u00a350bn,” he said.<\/p>\n “However, if Northern Ireland’s growth in GDP this year is well under 1% – and this is quite likely – that would be equivalent to a quarter of economic growth.”<\/p>\n Stuart Anderson, from the NI Chamber of Commerce, said the US was a really important market and called on the UK government to “respond really, really clearly” after Wednesday’s announcement.<\/p>\n He added that could get “challenging” if the EU and UK respond differently.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n US tariffs could have a more profound effect on the Republic of Ireland’s economy.<\/a><\/p>\n Among EU countries, Ireland is the most reliant on the US as an export market.<\/p>\n In 2024, almost a third of the country’s total exports were to the US – worth \u20ac73bn (\u00a361bn).<\/p>\n President Trump has previously indicated his discontent with the scale of manufacturing by US pharmaceutical firms in Ireland<\/a>.<\/p>\n In the Irish parliament, the Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Miche\u00e1l Martin said investors in Ireland are already “pausing decisions” to see how the tariffs issue play out.<\/p>\n He said the EU will take a “strategic response” and it will be important that any counter-measures did not compound the problems.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n