Sir Keir Starmer is expected to announce the UK’s recognition of a Palestinian state in a statement on Sunday afternoon.

The move comes after the prime minister said in July the UK would shift its position in September unless Israel met conditions including agreeing to a ceasefire in Gaza and committing to a long-term sustainable peace deal that delivers a two-state solution.

It represents a major change in British foreign policy after successive governments said recognition should come as part of a peace process and at a time of maximum impact.

The move has drawn fierce criticism from the Israeli government, hostage families and some Conservatives.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously said such a move “rewards terror”.

However, UK ministers argue there was a moral responsibility to act to keep the hope of a long-term peace deal alive.

Government sources said the situation on the ground had worsened significantly in the last few weeks. They cited images showing starvation and violence in Gaza, which the prime minister has previously described as “intolerable”.

Israel’s latest ground operation in Gaza City, described by a UN official as “cataclysmic”, has forced hundreds of thousands of people to flee.

Earlier this week, a United Nations commision of inquiry concluded Israel had committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, which Israel denounced as “distorted and false”.

Ministers also highlighted the continued expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law, as a key factor in the decision to recognise Palestinian statehood.

Justice Secretary David Lammy, who was foreign secretary in July when the path to recognition was announced, cited the controversial E1 settlement project which critics warn would put an end to hopes for a viable, contiguous Palestinian state.

He said: “The recognition of a Palestinian state is as a consequence of the serious expansion that we’re seeing in the West Bank, the settler violence that we’re seeing in the West Bank, and the intention and indications that we’re seeing to build for example the E1 development that would run a coach and horses through the possibility of a two-state solution.”

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas welcomed the UK’s recognition pledge when he visited Sir Keir earlier this month, with Downing Street saying both leaders had agreed Hamas had no role in future governance of Palestine.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said she wanted to see a two-state solution in the Middle East.

But writing in The Telegraph over the weekend, she said: “It is obvious, and the US has been clear on this, that recognition of a Palestinian state at this time and without the release of the hostages, would be a reward for terrorism.”

Meanwhile, in an open letter to Sir Keir on Saturday, family members of some of the hostages taken by Hamas urged the Prime Minister not to take the step until the remaining 48, of whom 20 are believed to still be alive, had been returned.

The announcement of the forthcoming recognition had “dramatically complicated efforts to bring home our loved ones”, they wrote. “Hamas has already celebrated the UK’s decision as a victory and reneged on a ceasefire deal.”

Sources in government said ministers will be setting out next steps for sanctioning Hamas in the coming weeks.

During a state visit to the UK this week, US President Donald Trump also said he disagreed with recognition.

Sir Keir had set a deadline of the UN General Assembly meeting, which takes place this week, for Israel to take “substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza, agree to a ceasefire and commit to a long-term, sustainable peace, reviving the prospect of a two-state solution”.

Speaking in July, he said: “I’ve always said we will recognise a Palestinian state as a contribution to a proper peace process, at the moment of maximum impact for the two-state solution.

“With that solution now under threat, this is the moment to act.”

A number of other countries including Portugal, France, Canada and Australia have also said they will recognise a Palestinian state, while Spain, Ireland and Norway took the step last year.

Palestine is currently recognised by around 75% of the UN’s 193 member states, but has no internationally agreed boundaries, no capital and no army – making recognition largely symbolic.

The two-state solution refers to the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital. Israel currently occupies both the West Bank and Gaza, meaning the Palestinian Authority is not in full control of its land or people.

Recognising a Palestinian state has long been a cause championed by many within the Labour Party. The PM has been under mounting pressure to take a tougher stance on Israel, particularly from MPs on the left of his party.

Shortly before he gave his speech in July, more than half of Labour MPs signed a letter calling for the government to immediately recognise a Palestinian state.

However, critics questioned why the government had appeared to put conditions on Israel but not on Hamas, when it set out its path to recognition.

The Chief Rabbi, Sir Ephraim Mirvis, called on the government to pause its decision.

“The intended recognition is not contingent upon a functioning or democratic Palestinian government, nor even upon the most basic commitment to a peaceful future,” he said.

“Astonishingly, it is not even conditional upon the release of the 48 hostages who remain in captivity.”

Government sources insisted their demands for Hamas to release the hostages and agree to a ceasefire had not changed.

But officials in the Foreign Office argued statehood was a right of the Palestinian people and could not be dependent on Hamas, which the government views as a terrorist organisation.

Speaking on Thursday when he hosted President Trump at Chequers, Sir Keir reiterated that Hamas could play “no part” in any future Palestinian state.

The Israeli military launched its Gaza campaign in response to the unprecedented Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage.

At least 64,964 people have been killed in Israeli attacks in Gaza since then, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.