Mozambique is set for a watershed election that will see a change of the presidential guard, with the era of leaders who forged their careers in the trenches of the independence war against Portuguese rule coming to an end.

For the first time, the once all-powerful Frelimo party is fielding a presidential candidate who was born after independence – the charismatic 47-year-old Daniel Chapo, who it hopes will rally voters fed up with its 49-year rule.

“In some places Frelimo campaign members have been booed and openly rejected,” political commentator Charles Mangwiro tells the BBC.

Mozambique – strategically located along the southern African coast and rich in natural resources, but hit by an insurgency in the remote north – will hold presidential elections on Wednesday, along with parliamentary and gubernatorial elections.

President Filipe Nyusi is stepping down at the end of his two terms and hopes to hand the reigns of power to Chapo. His government had to deal with the fallout of the “tuna bond” corruption scandal – which triggered the country’s worst economic crisis.

In comparison, Chapo is a breath of fresh air – and draws big crowds at rallies across the country as he distances himself from the corruption that has plagued Frelimo for much of its rule since independence in 1975.

“Brother Dan is honesty in person… He is the voice of hope we want to embrace… It’s time for change,” say the lyrics of one of his campaign songs.

But human rights activist and journalist Mirna Chitsungo says she doubts whether Chapo can convince all voters that he can change Frelimo.

“If we have a degraded country, it is because of corruption. He faces the challenge of promising to fight this evil while belonging to a party that, on a large scale, has perpetuated corruption,” she told the BBC.

Counting in Chapo’s favour is the fact that he is a relative newcomer in the political arena, having joined government only in 2011 as a district administrator, rising by 2019 to become governor of the southern Inhambane province until taking over as general secretary of Frelimo in May.

But his critics say that to ensure victory, Frelimo has a back-up plan: fraud.

A leading non-governmental organisation in Mozambique, Centro de Integridade Pública, says its research showed that around 5% of the names on the voters’ roll are fake, or so-called “ghost voters” – that is a figure of nearly 900,000.

“The simple fact is that data published by the CNE [Central National Elections Commission] itself shows that 878,868 more voters were registered than there are voting age adults in some provinces, and thus these are ghost voters on the voters roll,” Mozambique analyst Joe Hanlon told the BBC.

Miguel de Brito, from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, notes that the “ghost voters” are not evenly distributed across the country – only seven key provinces out of 10 have registered more voters than people.

For instance, one-third of all the people registered in Gaza Province, which usually votes overwhelmingly for Frelimo, are thought to be “ghost voters”.

It is also the area where large numbers of people leave every year for work in South Africa.

“It’s gotten worse, this year we managed to register nationally almost 105% of the voting age population,” Mr De Brito told the BBC.

Both the election commission and Frelimo deny any foul play, insisting that the elections will be free and fair.

Chapo is facing a challenge from three other candidates:

• Venâncio Mondlane, an independent
• Ossufo Momade of the main opposition Renamo party, and
• Lutero Simango, who is spearheading the campaign of the third-biggest party, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), with a promise to build more factories and lower the cost of living.

Of the three, Mondlane is the fresh face, vying for the presidency for the first time after breaking away from Renamo.

With the slogan “Save Mozambique – this country is ours”, the 50-year-old is proving to be a big hit, especially in the campaign to win the youth vote.

“He [Mondlane] uses this slogan everywhere and he tries to explain to young voters that they should take pride in being Mozambican because conditions are there for them not to be poor or unemployed,” Mangwiro explains.

“He draws large numbers at his campaign rallies and people are not frog-marched to attend – come rain, cold or sun.”

A former banker, Mondlane first made his mark when he ran for mayor of the capital, Maputo, in local elections last year.

Many people believed that he won – alleging the result was then rigged in favour of Frelimo’s candidate.

Mondlane fought that election under the banner of Renamo, but quit the party after Momade, 60, refused to make way for him to take over.

Momade became Renamo’s leader following the death of its long-time leader Afonso Dhlakama in 2018.

He is widely credited for signing a peace deal with Nyusi to end a civil war that had raged between Renamo fighters and government forces.

Momade ran for the presidency in elections in 2019, and claimed that he was robbed of victory by Nyusi, but remained committed to the peace deal.

Though he is confident of winning this time, his chances have been hampered by Mondlane’s entry into the race – a point that Chitsungo, the human rights activist, made when she said that Mondlane is seen by many Renamo voters as a “young man with the spirit of Dhlakama”.

“It is as if we are having elections with a resurrected Dhlakama, a rejuvenated Dhlakama. So, we have this novelty,” she pointed out.

Chapo is hoping that the Renamo vote will be split between the two men, improving his chances of clinching victory.

In a sign of his determination to win, Chapo has travelled to next-door neighbour South Africa to raise funds for his campaign, hosting a banquet in an upmarket suburb of Johannesburg.

He also addressed ordinary Mozambicans in the city, urging them to cast their ballots for him at the embassy where they were able to register to vote earlier in the year.

“This is a candidacy for renewal,” he told the crowd. “This is a unique opportunity I have to make a difference, almost 50 years after independence.”

Mondlane also took his campaign to Johannesburg, visiting a fresh-produce market that Mozambicans run in the city.

“I’ll sort out the problems that led you to abandon Mozambique,” he said.

The violence in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, which has witnessed jihadist attacks since 2017 that have halted the lucrative liquefied natural gas projects there, has not been a major election issue.

Rwandan and South Africans troops, deployed several years ago to deal with the insurgents, are still on the ground for now – though Ziyanda Stuurman, from political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, says there has been an “uptick in the frequency and severity of insurgent attacks since January”.

Most analysts agree the biggest challenge for any new president will be creating economic opportunities and jobs in a country where 62% of the population live in extreme poverty, on less than $1.90 (£1.45) a day.

But the election race is still wide open, with candidates and parties holding their final campaign rallies on Sunday.

Refusing to bet on who will win on Wednesday, Mangwiro, the political analyst, says: “It’s too close to call.”